ACT Research, Columbus, Ind., has upgraded its forecasts for 2020 across the board. According to ACT’s release of its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, the uptick is a result of a robust “perfect storm” of positives in late spring and summer, many set in motion by the federal government’s and the Federal Reserve’s massive stimulus responses, as well as the trucking industry’s jettisoning of drivers in April.
Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst, said, “on top of the continued steady roll out of good economic numbers, the sustained rally in spot rates was a key factor in this month’s forecast mark-up. That said, parked capacity is likely to weigh on the market as those units are redeployed throughout 2021.
“Another factor in the 2020 forecast mark-up is not just the revival in order strength, but the very front-end loaded nature of June’s orders and very strong near-term backlog filling,” Vieth said.
“Even in the face of significant parked capacity, a case can be made for a steady, if modest, Class 8 market rebound from here.”
He added that based on continued increases in build in the face of already high inventories, “Classes 5 to 7 OEMs appear to be betting on business and consumers’ resilience.”
ACT says the N.A. CV Outlook forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1 to 5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides an overview of the North American markets, as well as relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.